January Graph

Hockey Power Rankings

Through January 25 games:

Rank	Team
1	SanJose
2	Chicago
3	Washington
4	Vancouver
5	NewJersey
6	Colorado
7	Buffalo
8	Phoenix
9	Nashville
10	LosAngeles
11	Calgary
12	Pittsburgh
13	Philadelphia
14	Detroit
15	Minnesota
16	Ottawa
17	StLouis
18	Anaheim
19	Florida
20	NYRangers
21	Dallas
22	Columbus
23	Boston
24	Atlanta
25	Montreal
26	NYIslanders
27	TampaBay
28	Edmonton
29	Toronto
30	Carolina

Hockey: January 26

Jan 26 Picks

WAS -155

LA -115

PHO 155

NJ -105

CHI -220

Jan 17 results: 1-3 (-1.85 units)
YTD: 7-9 (-1.86 units)

Football Results

With only the Super Bowl left, here's my season results (vs. spread of course):

Week	W	L
8	4	4
9	1	3
10	3	3
11	4	3
12	5	4
13	6	5
14	7	2
15	6	1
16	5	4
17	2	3
WC	2	2
DIV	2	2
CHAMP	0	2
SB	??	??
W-L	47	38

I have to be happy about a winning season, but picking only 85 games isn't really a big sample. Football is by far the most fun to bet imo. Countless websites, amazing TV coverage, ability to watch a good chunk of games, only taking up one day a week etc... I have a really strong opinion on the Super Bowl so hopefully I'll be able to add one more W to this tally, and then it's a long, long offseason...

Brag Post

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($39.50)
Hero (Button) ($27.10)
SB ($26.30)
BB ($21.90)
UTG ($14.20)
MP ($25)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J, J
3 folds, Hero bets $0.75, SB raises $2.40, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.75

Flop: ($5.25) 4, 10, Q (2 players)
SB bets $3.50, Hero calls $3.50

Turn: ($12.25) 4 (2 players)
SB bets $6, Hero calls $6

River: ($24.25) 7 (2 players)
SB bets $14.30 (All-In), Hero calls $14.30

Total pot: $52.85

Results:
Hero had J, J (two pair, Jacks and fours).
SB had 6, A (one pair, fours).
Outcome: Hero won $50.30

NFL Conference Championship Picks

J-E-T-S JetsJetsJets plus-7 vs. Indy
Saints minus-4 vs. Minny

Gogogogogogogogo!

Hockey: Jan 17

Jan 17 picks:

NJ -135

TB 115

NAS -185

CAL 170

Jan 15 results: 3-3 (+.03 units)
YTD: 6-6 (-.02 units)

Hockey: Jan 15 picks

Jan 15 picks:

CHI -190

BOS 115

EDM 250

BUF -140

OTT 135

ATL 115 Jan 14 results: 2-0 (+1.8 units) YTD results: 3-3 (-0.04 units)

Hockey: January 14

Jan 14:

NAS +139
WAS -240


Jan 13 results: 1-3 (-1.85 units)
YTD: 1-3 (-1.85 units)

Hockey Picks

With football winding down, I'm going to start posting some hockey picks. I've devised a crude model. I need a sport to follow until baseball starts. Probably a bad idea to follow these picks, I'm just experimenting here and it's easier to be honest when you're posting your picks on a blog than just in a spreadsheet.

January 13:
ATL +115
TOR +115
CAR +210
MIN +130

Divisional Round Picks

Divisional Round Picks:
NO -7 over ARI
BAL +6.5 over IND
DAL +3 over MIN
NYJ +8 over SD

Wild Card results: 2-2 (-.18 units)
YTD results: 45-34 (+6.91 units)

Tony Kornheiser, Playoff Picks

Listening to a week old Pardon the Interruption podcast on ESPN about the Colts not trying in week 16 against the Jets. Tony Kornheiser stated that millions of gamblers and fantasy players were "cheated out of an honest game" because of the Colts phoning it in. He mentioned gamblers being cheated 3 or 4 times. Getting a "dishonest game" would involve Caldwell getting paid ten dimes to bench Manning or something like that. It's well within the rules to rest your starters and it's arguably the "correct" thing to do. Gamblers all anticipate this and take it into account when betting games the same way we account for weather, home field, injuries and anything else. It's things like this that make sportsbetting interesting and potentially profitable, not dishonest or crooked. The only people that were cheated were the Texans, Steelers, Dolphins, Broncos and their fans. On to the picks:

Wild Card Round Picks:
NYJ +3 over CIN
PHI +4 over DAL
BAL +3.5 over NE
GB +1.5 over ARI

Week 17 results: 2-3 (-1.18 units)
YTD results: 43-32 (+7.09 units)

Yep, all underdogs. I feel alot more strongly about the Eagles and Ravens than the other two games. Jets/Bengals is especially close. BAL and GB are two of the most underrated (underachieving?) teams in the league.

Giants: Signing DeRosa, Uribe

The Giants have signed both Mark DeRosa and Juan Uribe, so apparently what I wrote about DeRosa being this years Uribe was wrong. Uribe will be this year's Uribe (but not as good) and DeRosa will be playing everyday. Hopefully he'll play third base and Sandoval will play first. Although that will hurt Sandoval's All-Star chances, it'll help our playoff chances.

If DeRosa is that "middle of the order guy" Sabean's always talking about us looking for than he'll certainly disappoint. I won't hold my breath, but hopefully there's some money left there for an outfielder to be that guy.

Straight Draws

I played these two hands within 5 minutes of each other. It's sort of interesting because in both hands I have an open ended straight draw on a paired board but every other aspect of the hands are different.

Hand One:

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) ($25)
SB ($45.05)
BB ($25.35)
UTG ($31.55)
MP ($21.10)
CO ($29.35)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J, 9
1 fold, MP calls $0.25, 1 fold, Hero bets $1.25, 1 fold, BB calls $1, 1 fold

(Pretty standard iso-raise vs. loose-passive MP I think.)

Flop: ($2.85) 10, 8, 8 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.75, BB raises $5.25, Hero calls $3.50

(I bet my draw here to pick up dead money and build a pot in position. When he raises, he's got AT, Diamonds, 8s, possibly overpairs. I'm getting about 3 to 1 to hit the straight or win with a bluff later, I don't think I'm getting the right odds with the possibility of alot of my diamond outs being no good. I call.)

Turn: ($13.35) 4 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

(I think he checks his all of his range except for the AT here, I'm way behind his range and can't expect him to fold anything so I take a free card.)

River: ($13.35) 5 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $7, 1 fold

(He would have value bet any eight or ten here, so he either has an overpair or missed diamonds. I think this is a perfect spot to bluff. It definately could look to him like I have a monster, and even if it doesn't he can't call with any hand that checks to me.)

Total pot: $13.35

That took a really long time so I'll post the second hand tomorrow.

Week 17 Picks

Week 17 picks:
JAC +2 vs. CLE
CHI -3 vs. DET
MIA +3 vs. PIT
ATL -2 vs. TB
DEN -11 vs. KC

Week 16 results: 5-4 (+.5 units)
YTD results: 41-29 (+8.27 units)