NFL Week 7

PIT -3 OVER MIA
ATL -3.5 OVER CIN
WAS +3 OVER CHI
CLE +13 OVER NO
SEA -7 OVER ARI
NE +2.5 OVER SD
DEN -8 OVER OAK
GB -2.5 OVER MIN
NYG +3 OVER DAL

Week 6 record: 5-1-1
Season record: 29-16-1
All time record: 77-54-1

NFL Week 6

STL +9 over SD
KC +4.5 over HOU
NE -2.5 over BAL
SEA +6 over CHI
GB -3 over MIA
NYJ -3.5 over DEN
IND -3 over WAS

Week 5 record: 5-2
Season record: 24-15
All time record: 72-53

NFL Week 5

Week 5 picks:

BAL -7 OVER DEN
KC +7 OVER IND
CHI +1 OVER CAR
NYG +3 OVER HOU
SD -6 OVER OAK
TEN +7 OVER DAL
NYJ -4 OVER MIN

Week 4 results: 4-4
Season results: 19-13
All time results: 67-51

NFL Week 4

Week 4 picks:

DEN +6.5 OVER TEN
PIT -2.5 OVER BAL
CAR +13.5 OVER NO
ATL -6.5 OVER SF
HOU -3 OVER OAK
ARI +9 OVER SD
PHI -5.5 OVER WAS
NE -1 OVER MIA

Week 3 record: 5-2
Season record: 15-9
All-time record: 63-47
Abandoned College Football record: 0-2

Week 3 Picks

Picking early this week, may add more picks later:

NFL:
NYG -3 over TEN
PIT -1 over TB
ATL +4 over NO
KC +3 over SF
DAL +3 over HOU
SEA +5.5 over SD
ARI -4.5 over OAK

Week 2 record: 5-3
2010 record: 10-7
All time record: 58-45

Experimenting with CFB:
Washington St +22 over USC
Arizona -7 over Cal

Week 2 Picks

Week 2:

kc+1

bal -2.5

chi +7.5

atl -6.5

mia +5.5

stl +3.5

was +2.5

jac +7

Yes, I am avoiding all the games with injured starting QB's. I'm a coward.

Last Weeks Results: 5-4
All-Time Results: 53-42

Week 1 NFL Picks

Week 1 Picks min +4.5...oops

chi -7

ne -4.5

ind -1

phi +3

sea +3

was +3.5

bal +1.5

kc +4.5

Golf Rankings Update

Through the 2010 US Open

Rk	As of 2010U	Points
1	Phil Mickelson	1.80
2	Tiger Woods	1.74
3	Lee Westwood	1.24
4	Graeme McDowell	1.23
5	Padraig Harrington	1.22
6	Stewart Cink	0.94
7	Lucas Glover	0.89
8	Yong-Eun Yang	0.83
9	Ernie Els	0.79
10	Angel Cabrera	0.77
11	Henrik Stenson	0.60
12	Gregory Havret	0.52
13	Sergio Garcia	0.49
14	Anthony Kim	0.48
15	Ian Poulter	0.47
16	Ricky Barnes	0.46
17	Tom Watson	0.46
18	Ben Curtis	0.45
19	Kenny Perry	0.41
20	Trevor Immelman	0.40
21	Rory McIlroy	0.39
22	Hunter Mahan	0.38
23	David Duval	0.36
24	Camilo Villegas	0.36
25	K.J. Choi	0.36
26	Chad Campbell	0.35
27	Chris Wood	0.34
28	Retief Goosen	0.33
29	Jim Furyk	0.30
30	Martin Kaymer	0.30
31	Steve Stricker	0.29
32	Steve Flesch	0.29
33	Dustin Johnson	0.28
34	Brandt Snedeker	0.28
35	Sean O'Hair	0.27
36	Ross Fisher	0.27
37	Miguel-Angel Jimenez	0.26
38	Robert Karlsson	0.26
39	John Merrick	0.25
40	Soren Hansen	0.24
41	Andres Romero	0.24
42	Justin Leonard	0.23
43	Nick Watney	0.23
44	Soren Kjeldsen	0.23
45	Davis Love III	0.22
46	Rocco Mediate	0.22
47	Stephen Ames	0.22
48	Robert Allenby	0.22
49	Tim Clark	0.21
50	Luke Donald	0.21

Unofficial World Golf Rankings

I don't like the OWGR because they're hard to figure out and players are penalized for player small time events. If Phil Mickelson were to play a Nationwide event and win he'd lose points. I think. Not that he would enter one anyway, but should he really be penalized for playing lesser events? It's really complicated. I could be way off on that point. So anyways, I made my own rankings based only on the majors for a couple reasons.

1. The majors are the only tournaments that ALL the best players in the world play in.
2. Including other events would involve ranking the strength of the fields and spending countless hours entering data, hours that I don't have.

So here they are: Mike West's Unofficial World Golf Rankings. You get points based on your finish in the last 12 majors played. Recent performance is weighted heavier than older performances. Points are allotted on this basis: http://www.colleyrankings.com/olympics2010/explain.html

A win is worth one point, a second .5, third .33, fourth .25 etc. The last major played is worth full points, while the tournament before that is worth 11/12 points, and so on until the last 12 majors have been counted...

Rankings as of 2010 Masters:

Rk	Player	Points
1	Tiger Woods	1.83
2	Phil Mickelson	1.73
3	Padraig Harrington	1.46
4	Lee Westwood	1.32
5	Stewart Cink	1.05
6	Lucas Glover	0.98
7	Yong-Eun Yang	0.92
8	Angel Cabrera	0.92
9	Henrik Stenson	0.65
10	Ernie Els	0.56
11	Sergio Garcia	0.54
12	Anthony Kim	0.54
13	Ian Poulter	0.52
14	Trevor Immelman	0.52
15	Ricky Barnes	0.48
16	Tom Watson	0.47
17	Ben Curtis	0.46
18	Hunter Mahan	0.45
19	Kenny Perry	0.44
20	Rory McIlroy	0.44
21	Chad Campbell	0.41
22	Camilo Villegas	0.40
23	Chris Wood	0.39
24	David Duval	0.39
25	K.J. Choi	0.39
26	Retief Goosen	0.37
27	Steve Flesch	0.34
28	Steve Stricker	0.33
29	Jim Furyk	0.33
30	Miguel-Angel Jimenez	0.31
31	Andres Romero	0.30
32	Ross Fisher	0.30
33	John Merrick	0.28
34	Robert Karlsson	0.27
35	Rocco Mediate	0.27
36	Soren Hansen	0.27
37	Stephen Ames	0.27
38	Graeme McDowell	0.27
39	Nick Watney	0.25
40	Geoff Ogilvy	0.24
41	Justin Rose	0.22
42	Paul Casey	0.22
43	Soren Kjeldsen	0.22
44	Francesco Molinari	0.22
45	Luke Donald	0.22
46	Robert Allenby	0.22
47	Sean O'Hair	0.21
48	Mike Weir	0.21
49	Brandt Snedeker	0.20
50	Fred Couples	0.19

No Posts

Haven't posted in awhile as I've been too busy for online poker and football season is over. Once baseball starts I'll have something to talk about.

SUPER BOWL PICK

SUPER BOWL PICK

Saints +5.5!!!!!

January Graph

Hockey Power Rankings

Through January 25 games:

Rank	Team
1	SanJose
2	Chicago
3	Washington
4	Vancouver
5	NewJersey
6	Colorado
7	Buffalo
8	Phoenix
9	Nashville
10	LosAngeles
11	Calgary
12	Pittsburgh
13	Philadelphia
14	Detroit
15	Minnesota
16	Ottawa
17	StLouis
18	Anaheim
19	Florida
20	NYRangers
21	Dallas
22	Columbus
23	Boston
24	Atlanta
25	Montreal
26	NYIslanders
27	TampaBay
28	Edmonton
29	Toronto
30	Carolina

Hockey: January 26

Jan 26 Picks

WAS -155

LA -115

PHO 155

NJ -105

CHI -220

Jan 17 results: 1-3 (-1.85 units)
YTD: 7-9 (-1.86 units)

Football Results

With only the Super Bowl left, here's my season results (vs. spread of course):

Week	W	L
8	4	4
9	1	3
10	3	3
11	4	3
12	5	4
13	6	5
14	7	2
15	6	1
16	5	4
17	2	3
WC	2	2
DIV	2	2
CHAMP	0	2
SB	??	??
W-L	47	38

I have to be happy about a winning season, but picking only 85 games isn't really a big sample. Football is by far the most fun to bet imo. Countless websites, amazing TV coverage, ability to watch a good chunk of games, only taking up one day a week etc... I have a really strong opinion on the Super Bowl so hopefully I'll be able to add one more W to this tally, and then it's a long, long offseason...

Brag Post

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($39.50)
Hero (Button) ($27.10)
SB ($26.30)
BB ($21.90)
UTG ($14.20)
MP ($25)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J, J
3 folds, Hero bets $0.75, SB raises $2.40, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.75

Flop: ($5.25) 4, 10, Q (2 players)
SB bets $3.50, Hero calls $3.50

Turn: ($12.25) 4 (2 players)
SB bets $6, Hero calls $6

River: ($24.25) 7 (2 players)
SB bets $14.30 (All-In), Hero calls $14.30

Total pot: $52.85

Results:
Hero had J, J (two pair, Jacks and fours).
SB had 6, A (one pair, fours).
Outcome: Hero won $50.30

NFL Conference Championship Picks

J-E-T-S JetsJetsJets plus-7 vs. Indy
Saints minus-4 vs. Minny

Gogogogogogogogo!

Hockey: Jan 17

Jan 17 picks:

NJ -135

TB 115

NAS -185

CAL 170

Jan 15 results: 3-3 (+.03 units)
YTD: 6-6 (-.02 units)

Hockey: Jan 15 picks

Jan 15 picks:

CHI -190

BOS 115

EDM 250

BUF -140

OTT 135

ATL 115 Jan 14 results: 2-0 (+1.8 units) YTD results: 3-3 (-0.04 units)

Hockey: January 14

Jan 14:

NAS +139
WAS -240


Jan 13 results: 1-3 (-1.85 units)
YTD: 1-3 (-1.85 units)

Hockey Picks

With football winding down, I'm going to start posting some hockey picks. I've devised a crude model. I need a sport to follow until baseball starts. Probably a bad idea to follow these picks, I'm just experimenting here and it's easier to be honest when you're posting your picks on a blog than just in a spreadsheet.

January 13:
ATL +115
TOR +115
CAR +210
MIN +130

Divisional Round Picks

Divisional Round Picks:
NO -7 over ARI
BAL +6.5 over IND
DAL +3 over MIN
NYJ +8 over SD

Wild Card results: 2-2 (-.18 units)
YTD results: 45-34 (+6.91 units)

Tony Kornheiser, Playoff Picks

Listening to a week old Pardon the Interruption podcast on ESPN about the Colts not trying in week 16 against the Jets. Tony Kornheiser stated that millions of gamblers and fantasy players were "cheated out of an honest game" because of the Colts phoning it in. He mentioned gamblers being cheated 3 or 4 times. Getting a "dishonest game" would involve Caldwell getting paid ten dimes to bench Manning or something like that. It's well within the rules to rest your starters and it's arguably the "correct" thing to do. Gamblers all anticipate this and take it into account when betting games the same way we account for weather, home field, injuries and anything else. It's things like this that make sportsbetting interesting and potentially profitable, not dishonest or crooked. The only people that were cheated were the Texans, Steelers, Dolphins, Broncos and their fans. On to the picks:

Wild Card Round Picks:
NYJ +3 over CIN
PHI +4 over DAL
BAL +3.5 over NE
GB +1.5 over ARI

Week 17 results: 2-3 (-1.18 units)
YTD results: 43-32 (+7.09 units)

Yep, all underdogs. I feel alot more strongly about the Eagles and Ravens than the other two games. Jets/Bengals is especially close. BAL and GB are two of the most underrated (underachieving?) teams in the league.

Giants: Signing DeRosa, Uribe

The Giants have signed both Mark DeRosa and Juan Uribe, so apparently what I wrote about DeRosa being this years Uribe was wrong. Uribe will be this year's Uribe (but not as good) and DeRosa will be playing everyday. Hopefully he'll play third base and Sandoval will play first. Although that will hurt Sandoval's All-Star chances, it'll help our playoff chances.

If DeRosa is that "middle of the order guy" Sabean's always talking about us looking for than he'll certainly disappoint. I won't hold my breath, but hopefully there's some money left there for an outfielder to be that guy.

Straight Draws

I played these two hands within 5 minutes of each other. It's sort of interesting because in both hands I have an open ended straight draw on a paired board but every other aspect of the hands are different.

Hand One:

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) ($25)
SB ($45.05)
BB ($25.35)
UTG ($31.55)
MP ($21.10)
CO ($29.35)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J, 9
1 fold, MP calls $0.25, 1 fold, Hero bets $1.25, 1 fold, BB calls $1, 1 fold

(Pretty standard iso-raise vs. loose-passive MP I think.)

Flop: ($2.85) 10, 8, 8 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.75, BB raises $5.25, Hero calls $3.50

(I bet my draw here to pick up dead money and build a pot in position. When he raises, he's got AT, Diamonds, 8s, possibly overpairs. I'm getting about 3 to 1 to hit the straight or win with a bluff later, I don't think I'm getting the right odds with the possibility of alot of my diamond outs being no good. I call.)

Turn: ($13.35) 4 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

(I think he checks his all of his range except for the AT here, I'm way behind his range and can't expect him to fold anything so I take a free card.)

River: ($13.35) 5 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $7, 1 fold

(He would have value bet any eight or ten here, so he either has an overpair or missed diamonds. I think this is a perfect spot to bluff. It definately could look to him like I have a monster, and even if it doesn't he can't call with any hand that checks to me.)

Total pot: $13.35

That took a really long time so I'll post the second hand tomorrow.

Week 17 Picks

Week 17 picks:
JAC +2 vs. CLE
CHI -3 vs. DET
MIA +3 vs. PIT
ATL -2 vs. TB
DEN -11 vs. KC

Week 16 results: 5-4 (+.5 units)
YTD results: 41-29 (+8.27 units)